A couple different bits of statistic paint contradictory pictures of the likelihood of the disaster of a second Trump term. On the one hand, the futures market (Predictit.org) gives Trump a 47% chance of being re-elected. And while such markets are certainly fallible, they are supposed to represent "the wisdom of crowds" and be superior to the individual judgment of the people who compose the crowd. On the other hand, a very recent Quinnapiac poll indicates that while 32% of American voters said they would definitely vote for Trump and 12% of American voters said they might vote for Trump, a whopping 54% of Americans said they definitely would NOT vote for Trump. So how do those two numbers fit together? if more than half of Americans are already fully committed to not voting for Trump, why would the people who are putting their money down on predictions about the electoral outcome think -- collectively -- that Trump has such a good chance of winning in 2020? Or, to put the same question in a slightly different way, what would account for such different-looking pictures of Trump's electoral prospects?
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