It appears at present that the probability is that the Democrats will pass a “Build Back Better” bill through reconciliation— but that it will fall short of what Biden and almost all the Democrats in Congress wanted.
That it’s probable can be judged from the futures markets, which appear to be saying there’s a bit better than a 2:1 chance something above $1.5 trillion will be passed.
(That it will fall short is, of course, the result of the fact that the Democrats’ margin in the Senate is so razor thin that it is in the power of every Democratic Senator to block the will of all the rest, and that two Senators — Manchin and Sinema — have apparently chosen to exercise that power.)
When such a bill comes to the President’s desk for his signature (presumably with the “bi-partisan Infrastructure bill), President Biden will have the opportunity to frame these accomplishments by speaking to the nation.
There is some reason to be concerned that the “falling short” aspect of things will diminish the political benefits of what has been accomplished. Some really valuable goals may not be achieved. And thus, while failing to pass any of this — the agenda on which the Democrats ran — would likely be a political disaster for the Democrats, the Democrats may not automatically get the political boost hoped for with the reduced package the Democrats could get the likes of Manchin and Sinema to sign onto.
This matters as the contest for control of Congress in the 2022 Election looms ahead.
But I think President Biden can turn this only partial success to his advantage with the remarks he makes to the nation when he signs the bill.
(The premise is that there’s substantial public support for what Biden originally proposed. That’s been widely reported, and shown on an item-by-item basis for various provisions.)
Here’s how Biden might do it:
Biden begins by celebrating — in concrete terms — all the things these two measures accomplish for the American people, American families, the American future, etc.
He then goes on to say, “I’d hoped to do even more for you.”
Then he describes a few of the things he’d hoped to do for the nation, and underscores that “I know that a big majority of the American people wanted them, too.” (x% wanted A, y% wanted B, etc.)
But, Biden says, “We just couldn’t get everything we want enacted with the Congress we have now.”
(No mention of anyone who stood in the way. No naming names. No complaining about people, just wanting to do more good things for the country, American families, etc.)
“But I’m not giving up,” Biden says. “I’ll do everything I can with the next Congress to get A, B, and C done.”
And then comes the pitch to the public:
“If you want for us to be able to achieve these things — and I know most of you do — please help accomplish that by getting us a Congress that will support our getting these done.
“And I don’t mean that as a partisan message: vote for Republicans or Democrats who pledge that when Congress meets after the election, they will work to get those things accomplished.”
In that way, the unfinished nature of Biden’s agenda might be transformed from an only partial success into a call to voters to do their part to create the Congress that will get his popular agenda more fully enacted.