Biden has dealt with the Russian move against Ukraine, these past months, in a masterful fashion. It has been a very long time since any President of the United States has performed so impressively in the role of “leader of the free world.”
The speech Biden gave on Thursday, after Putin’s invasion had been fully launched, was outstanding. It hit all the right notes.
If the American people were to absorb all that he said in that one speech, the popular approval of Biden in this crisis — already showing signs of manifesting a boost in how the public sees him — could likely be sustained, perhaps expanded.
Unfortunately, most Americans didn’t hear that speech. And unfortunately also, most people need repeated exposure to ideas in order to absorb them.
In addition, the crisis as it unfolds will be presenting political dangers to the President — as the public observes what Putin inflicts on the Ukrainians, and as the economic costs to this nation of the sanctions set in fully — from which Biden will need to protect himself. The danger that
- Americans will blame Biden for the economic costs of the sanctions;
- Americans will believe that sanctions have failed, when Russian forces continue to dominate Ukraine in the coming months, and likely years;
- Americans will be frustrated by the U.S. military not showing who’s boss, and will blame Biden for being weak.
So if there were one piece of counsel I would give Biden on the domestic political challenge involved with this crisis — which will entail economic disruptions, which threatens to be traumatic to watch unfold, and which is likely moving our world into a new and more dangerous international situation— it would be this:
Find opportunities to speak to the nation repeatedly, finding new ways to convey the most necessary points that establish the wisdom of the course Biden led the world in taking.
Fleshing that out, my counsel would be to:
1) Help the American people to perceive the sanctions as the way to fight Putin under these circumstances. It would be folly for Americans to choose a shooting war between two nuclear superpowers— something that all the Presidents during the 44 years of the Cold War avoided. The sanctions are a weapon — wielded with the participation of a huge part of the world economy — that can work over time. The sanctions will undermine Putin’s position at home — and this war is not one that anyone but Putin seems to have chosen — and in time might bring down his tyrannical and aggressive regime.
2) Help the American people understand the sanctions as a means of fighting Putin. That can provide a context in which they can be more accepting of the costs those sanctions imposed on us. Biden has already shown that he recognizes the political dangers from rising gas prices, saying he’ll do what he can to minimize that economic pain for Americans. Beyond that, if Americans can appreciate how much less painful those higher gas prices are than are the costs of a shooting war — sons and daughters returning in body bags — they might be more accepting of the minor economic pain. Might even be led to see it as something patriotic to support, as people did in WW II when a whole variety of crucial resources became less available to the American people in order for the war effort to succeed.
3) Continue to talk tough about NATO, which America leads as a bulwark against aggression. Some Americans may fault Biden for being “weak” because, when they see atrocities the Russians may commit in Ukraine, the American military is not striking against Putin’s forces. Biden should continue to stress our firm intention to come to the defense of our NATO allies, whom Putin also apparently would want to gobble up. The distinction can be made clear between 1) America not choosing a Big War to defend a nation we have no commitment to defend, and 2) America being prepared to defend those nations we have committed to defend.
4) Make clear the distinction between not going to war to defend Ukraine, and our credible commitment to defend the members of the NATO alliance. The American defense of its NATO allies is a long-standing commitment, which would be triggered only by Russian aggression. That means that Biden can talk very tough, but entirely in a defensive posture. The choice for a potentially catastrophic war would be — as it was in Europe throughout the Cold War — entirely the responsibility of the Russians. Biden’s tough talk about our readiness to defend our NATO allies should help to neutralize whatever frustration Americans might have as the United States maintains military passivity in the face of Russian military aggression.
Events will create diverse opportunities for President Biden to speak to the nation. Creativity can find ways of making the same points in new ways. But repetition is key to getting the non-crazy part of the American electorate to have a clear picture of what’s being done and for what reasons. And of why they can be proud of the leadership their President has provided.