With my DVR, I could watch Biden make his famous comment — that Putin “cannot remain in power” — again and again. I’d heard that Biden’s parting shot was not in the script, and that it had suddenly undone all the eloquent things he had said by his impulsive comment that upped the ante by suggesting American policy had become “regime change.”
Was this Biden being the gaffe-machine again? Had this man, who had taken upon himself an enormous level of discipline since he began his rise to the presidency, somehow gotten carried away with the spontaneous impulse to make a threatening-sounding remark about (maybe) getting Putin’s much-abused dictatorial powers away from him?
So I watched the comment, repeatedly— and nothing about Biden’s performance sounded like it was a spur-of-the-moment improvization. Biden is not the most articulate of fellows, regrettably, but his delivery of that Big Line was smooth and forceful.
Which has led me to suspect — though I admit I could be wrong — that this was planned. Planned that he would say it. And planned that it would not be in the written text of the speech so that it would appear to be less than a thought-out American position.
If it was intentional, what would be the purpose?
My guess is that it was intended as a shot across the bow to Putin. Biden’s whole conduct has been so careful and responsible all along that I can imagine Biden’s advisors thinking that Putin would feel too confident that Biden will stay firmly within his lane. Which leaves Putin free to do whatever he wants without worrying what Biden might or might not do: he can invade Ukraine, he can brandish his nukes in threatening ways.
(The New York Times reports President Biden as saying,
“I was expressing the moral outrage I felt toward this man,” Mr. Biden told reporters, rejecting criticism that he misspoke. He said no one should have thought his comments were meant to be calling for Mr. Putin’s ouster.)
But if Biden displays his powerful outrage with his, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power” remark, Putin might wonder just how far Biden might decide to go if he gets further provoked. At least that might be the thinking of the Biden crowd: get Putin a bit more worried about what Biden might do, and that might get Putin to play his cards more carefully.
It’s not exactly like Nixon’s “Madman Theory,” where you want the other guy to think you’re crazy enough you might do something reckless. But with Biden it would be more like the “Really Outraged Guy Theory,” where you want Putin to think that it’s more in his interest to damp down the fire he started.
I don’t know if Biden and his gang thought this way. (The somewhat ragged way the Biden team dealt with the remark doesn’t look like a plan.) And I don’t know whether, if they did, the strategy would be a good one. Some have acted fearful that this “escalatory” comment might provoke Putin further.
But I think that there’s a lot of room for Biden to look more less predictable (and thus more menacing) in his confrontation with Putin over Ukraine. And this might have been a useful move for that purpose.