Yesterday for a while, the whole fate of the Putin regime seemed up in the air. Was there going to be a Civil War? Would Putin get toppled, for bungling and losing a war (as has happened to Russian rulers before, like 1917)? Would Prigozhin, if he succeeds in his coup, be even worse than Putin (given his horrendous record as leader of Wagner)? Would the door open for Ukraine to drive the Russians out?
But then came the equally stunning news that a deal had been reached according to which Prigozhin removes his threatened force (and removes himself to Belarus) and Putin pledges that Prigozhin will be given complete amnesty for what Putin had just that morning called “treason.”
I’ve heard the terms of the deal, but I don’t know how to understand what this deal means.
There's a piece in today's Washington Post that says that what it means is that Putin blinked.
I can see that Putin did back down from the threat to strike Prigozhin down for his rebellion. I can see how he's been weakened. To let someone who struck at the king get away with it is a sign of weakness.
Or maybe it should be said, differently, his weakness has been exposed (which of course weakens him).
But when Prigozhin stops his march toward Moscow and agrees to withdraw his armed threat to the regime, does he not blink, too? Which is the bigger back-down? I’m not sure it’s Putin’s.
So I’m wondering: When it comes to this deal, how was the blinking apportioned?
Another thing I wonder, too: as Prigozhin agrees to leave Russia and hang-out in Belarus, ruled by the deal-broker who is more or less of a vassal to Putin, how safe is Prigozhin? Will Prigozhin have his own security guard, or will be vulnerable to his hosts. Can he trust Putin’s pledge to let him be, and can he trust Lukasenko not to send a hit squad?
Surely Prigozhin is aware of all the Russian oligarchs who have been mysteriously falling out of windows since this war began.
Does Prigozhin still represent a threat to Putin? Did he agree to make himself harmless in exchange for assurances for his safety? Or is he still thinking of challenging Putin as he seemed to do this weekend?
Does the deal leave him the means:
- Does the deal leave him still in command of his Wagner army?
- Will he be able to campaign through messages sent on Prigozhin video rants?
The deal happened so suddenly, it makes one wonder if it was Prigozhin's plan -- all along -- to threaten and then withdraw? Why would he make that move toward Moscow if it was only a bluff. What’s the pay-off for creating such a drama, and then withdrawing the threat.
But if it wasn’t a bluff, but he really began the march toward Moscow envisioning winning a fight to take over there, why would he change his mind half-way there when all the incoming evidence was favorable (like the Russian army was not showing itself inclined to fight against this force marching toward Moscow).
Why not follow through under such favorable auguries?
So I am both enthralled by what we’ve just seen, and engaged by the importance of the shakiness of the power system of this very impactful (usually negatively) nuclear superpower that has just unilaterally thrown the international order into disorder with its unprovoked act of aggression against its innocent neighbor.
But I’m also pretty puzzled about just what it is that we’ve seen. And what that may mean for what lies ahead for our troubled world.
I’m interested if anyone out there has some light to shed on the meaning of these events.