This piece is appearing as a newspaper op/ed this week in my very red congressional district (VA-06)
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Everyone says this election will be close. Could be. But the American body politic has shown itself ripe for sudden dramatic change.
As soon as President Biden stepped aside and recommended Kamala Harris, for example, a tsunami of political passion -- that no one saw coming – arose in the Democratic world.
That abrupt psychological transformation in that part of the American body politic drew its power from the exceptional tension that Donald Trump has injected into our national politics. The extraordinary happened because of the intensity of dread and despair that possessed the Democratic world at the prospect of Trump regaining the presidency.
As soon as a situational change lifted the top off the emotional pressure cooker, a spirit of hope and energy was unleashed.
(We can tell it arose from the prior emotional state of the Democratic world, not from the new candidate, because the wave began even before Kamala appeared on stage.)
Has the extraordinary nature of Trump generated some extraordinary kind of tension also in the Republican world? Might that tension unleash another “phase transition,” like a politically impactful psychological transformation in Trump’s base of support?
I see a plausible possibility.
The tension I see – based on my decade of doing talk-radio conversations with conservatives – is between 1) the beautiful values a lot of conservatives seemed sincerely to hold (Christian values, reverence for the Constitution, emphasis on good character), and 2) their allegiance to a political figure who represents the opposite of all those values.
What attracts “good” people to a leader who represents what they’d formerly have called “evil”? The answer I propose is this: while part of those people is committed to the “good,” another part of them puts “strength” – the ability to dominate – first.
I could conjecture about formative experiences that makes such identifying with such strength so gratifying. But regardless of the origins, we’ve witnessed that it is clearly possible for a leader who is seen as strong (dominating) can gain their allegiance-- despite his trampling on values that another part of them sincerely holds sacred.
That internal psychological contradiction creates the tension that could lead to a “phase change” in Trump world under the right circumstances— specifically, if that leader were suddenly seen not as strong but weak.
Most observers think that nothing can detach Trump’s supporters from him. To that point, they note that Trump was right when he declared he could “shoot somebody on 5th Avenue” and not lose support.
But even if shooting someone is murder, it also shows his dominance. So such a crime wouldn’t cost him support.
But what if suddenly he looks not dominant, but dominated? That would undercut the foundation of the bond he has with those supporters.
Kamala Harris is the first Democratic standard-bearer in decades to show an appetite for the fight (“Bring it on”). And thus far she’s shown herself adept at making Trump look smaller and weaker.
- The “prosecutor” scored against the felon (the sexual assault, the fraud, etc.): “I know his type.”
- The one ready to go toe-to-toe mocks the one backing out of the debate: “Say it to my face.”
- Kamala talks of Trump in a scornful tone (“Weird.”)
So far, Kamala is winning the battle for dominance.
Two weeks in, observers are calling her performance “flawless,” and describing Trump as flailing and flustered, uncertain how to score off her. (Trump’s attempt to attack her on race seemed to backfire, as Kamala adeptly refused to walk into his “race” trap and instead responded in general terms to expose the ways Trump is less than what America deserves.)
Of course, things can change in the next three months. Trump might find ways of battling her that make him look strong again. Kamala might lose her footing, though there’s no visible reason why she would.
But what makes Trump vulnerable to being made to look small and weak is that, as with all bullies, that’s the fundamental truth about him.
For decades, the Democrats have failed to field a fighter as a champion. So a bigger-than-life Trump has dominated the scene. Kamala is looking like the fighter the pro-Democracy side has long needed.
So what could happen if Trump were made to look weak in front of his supporters? What would remain of his appeal to “good” conservative people-- who have been loyal because they feel better identifying with that bully’s power -- if they witness him continuing to be dominated? (By a woman, and especially a woman of color.)
So, Trump’s extraordinary impact on American politics has generated tensions in the American body politic that generate possibilities for dramatic change.
- The “phase change” in the Democratic world was from despair to hope.
- The potential dramatic shift in the Republican world would be a sudden alteration in how Trump is perceived.
(Something like in “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” the fairytale in which people suddenly see that the Emperor’s splendid clothing was imaginary, and he was in fact naked.)
So yes, maybe the election will be as close as everyone says. But the overnight transformation of the Democratic world – foreseen by no one – should alert us to the possibility that extraordinary forces are at work in the American body politic. And more unanticipated dramatic developments are possible. The rise of Trump was surprising. So also might be his fall.