One can discern movement in various parts of the political picture and together they show that Kamala Harris is continuously gaining and Trump is in descent.
- She’s rising (gradually) in the polls.
- Her “Favorable” numbers have leapt considerably.
- She raises more money and she attracts bigger crowds.
- Her side is notably more “Enthusiastic” than Trump’s.
- Her coalition seems to be expanding (e.g Dick Cheney’s endorsement, and Taylor Swift’s faction!)
I think it is reasonably safe to say that if things keep going with the current momentum, by Election Day Kamala Harris will be in a strong position to get the 270 Electoral votes necessary to be declared the winner.
(I think it possible that she will win a very lopsided victory, that by Election Day it won’t be close— that the margin of victory will be bigger than 2020 in both the Electoral College and in the total national vote.)
But that momentum can be altered if there’s some BIG EVENT that changes the political dynamic. There’s one particular concern that I have, as I scan the horizon for danger, is that the outbreak of a regional war between Israel and the force of Iran and its proxies.
That regional war would likely discredit the Biden administration, because it would represent a failure of American policy and would also be displeasing to the American electorate. So it helps Trump— and the Israeli Prime Minister would like Trump to win.
So I am optimistic, if we can get to Election Day without being thrown onto a different course by stormy weather.
But if I were Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, I would be working on how I was going to talk about that wider war, if it breaks out. If I were Kamala Harris, I would seek out Biden to have a say about how Biden would talk and act if the regional war he’d sought to prevent were to engulf the region.