The filibuster and the fate of the nation
Ordinarily, the question of “How will this particular Senator vote on this particular issue?” is of limited significance. But, conceivably, in the case of how West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin will deal with the issue of filibuster reform, much of America’s future may hang on the answer.
I’ve written previously – “America’s Big Opportunity—If We Don’t Squander It” – that it is a major stroke of luck for America that we have a crackerjack team in place at this moment when we’re facing major crises.
Crises are times when the divergence between best-case and worst-case scenarios are exceptionally large.
The Biden administration’s apparently reliable competence and concern for the good of the nation, means that we’ve got a good shot for getting one of the best-case scenarios.
And that’s why -- if the Biden agenda can be passed, even if only those proposals that, like the American Rescue Plan, are supported by a substantial majority of the American people -- this Presidency might well go down in history as one of America’s greatest. Even transformational.
But that opportunity depends upon another factor: i.e. whether the Republicans in the Senate will be able to block that agenda.
As the rules in the Senate now stand, it looks like for the most part they could and would. And a major opportunity to move America forward into a better future would be squandered.
However, if all the Democrats were to stick together – with not a single exception – those rules could be changed.
And -- although with the razor-thin Democratic majority in the Senate, any Democratic Senator could sabotage the prospects for Biden’s agenda -- it looks at present as though the main threat of a breakdown of Democratic unity on this issue comes from Joe Manchin.
(I’m imagining that Krysten Sinema will come to recognize that her re-election in Arizona will not be aided by her helping the Republicans continue to use the filibuster to paralyze the nation.)
Hence the question: will Manchin use his virtual veto power to substantially cripple the Biden presidency? Or will he come around on the filibuster to whatever extent is required to pass at least a meaningful and sufficient proportion of the Biden proposals?
It is rare – potentially even unprecedented – that the decision of any single Senator would have so major an impact on the nation’s future. And how Manchin decides will tell us a great deal about what kind of man he is.
What kind of man will Manchin show himself to be?
On the one hand, I cannot make much of a case for the notion that opening the door for Biden to achieve his goals would be beneficial for Manchin politically.
He represents a state that went nearly 70-30 for Trump. But – somehow -- Manchin manages to win his Senate seat as a Democrat. It is easier for me to imagine that Trump voters will punish Manchin for helping Biden than that they’ll reward him for keeping the Republicans’ abuse of the filibuster from depriving them of actions they desire. And in a state that’s gone so “red,” it is hard for me to imagine that Manchin needs to worry about getting primaried out of office by Democrats angry that he blocked filibuster reform.
On the other hand, Manchin has an opportunity to have a big positive impact – at a most crucial moment -- on America’s path forward. I don’t know if Manchin’s character is such that he’d put the nation first.
Some of the signs, from Manchin’s recent statements and conduct, do not look favorable. (Like his rejecting a Biden nominee on a basis that he never applied to Trump’s nominees, and like his apparently standing in the way of “background checks” for gun purchases while saying he cares greatly about the issue.)
But nothing Manchin has done so far necessarily predicts what he’ll do when he comes to what will likely be the pivotal political move of his career.
Some of those worrisome things that Manchin has lately said – like his apparently foolish call for some kind of “bipartisan” protection of voting rights – might well be part of a plan to to set the stage for his ultimate capitulation to the realities he probably already understands.
Until the showdown comes, we likely won’t know what’s sincere, and what is the use of posturing to dramatize his final discovery that supporting filibuster reform turns out to be the only possible way to defend basic American values.
So, as Manchin approaches a moment that will be unlike – in sheer magnitude of importance—anything he’s dealt with before, how he’ll choose is something that no one not privy to his thinking can reliably guess.
It is not just patriotism that might motivate this West Virginia Democrat to do “the right thing.”
Never before, and likely never again, will Manchin have the chance to gain himself a heroic place in American history.
(At the age of 73, he might well decide – rationally, and for reasons of ego gratification as well as patriotism -- to put more weight on his place in history than on his holding onto his office in the 2024 election.)
If Manchin is eager to gain that heroic place in American history, even though there are 49 other Democratic Senators whose votes would be identical to his, he needs to play out this drama skillfully. He needs to hold out long enough to make himself the focus of the drama (which may be why he is saying such worrisome things of late). And only then, when the fate of the nation teeters on the vote he’ll cast, do the right thing.
A speech the patriotic version of Manchin might make:
If that is the way he decides to go, he might also protect himself politically at that point by giving a speech -- to his Appalachian Trump-supporting West Virginia electorate – that would go something along these lines:
“This is not a time when the nation can afford to be crippled. It is essential for the interests of all Americans that we get things done. Too much is at stake right now for anyone to accept having our government paralyzed. At times of crisis like these, America has always depended on enabling presidential leadership to help us meet the dangers facing us and make the most of our opportunities to build a better future for our people..
“(For this is a time when we could really mess up, if we just back into the future because we couldn’t take the necessary actions. And that’s what will happen if the Senate continues to be a place where everything gets killed—even the things the American people overwhelmingly want.
“But this is also a time when, if we get good measures enacted, we can actually take some very big steps forward as a nation.
“Now, I don’t agree with everything that Joe Biden wants to accomplish. But whether you voted for him or not, you should recognize that he’s doing a pretty good job, that he’s put together a capable and public-spirited team, and they are giving it their best shot to do good things for the American people, like passing that American Rescue Plan that was backed by 75% of the American people, including a substantial majority of Republican voters.
“The only reason it wasn’t killed by the Republicans using the filibuster is that it is a special kind of bill that can be passed by a simple majority vote. With a lot of other mostly good-for-America measures that will be coming, the current filibuster rules in the Senate will allow a minority to prevent the majority from accomplishing anything.
“We can’t afford that kind of blockage at a moment like this. So even though this is opening up the door to some things I may support or oppose, I know that what’s best for our nation is that we take the shackles off the U.S. government by changing the Senate rules to allow the will of the majority to govern us rather than continuing to allow a minority to hurt the nation.
“It is not worthy for people to prioritize making a President fail rather than helping America to succeed.
“When every single one of the Republicans in both the House and the Senate voted against what they knew the American people both want (75%) and need, they showed that they cannot be trusted with the powers that the filibuster now gives them.
“Given the way they have prioritized making this President fail over helping this nation to succeed, and given the way they’ve abused the filibuster to enable the minority to paralyze the majority that, according to the Constitution, is supposed to rule, it is crystal clear to me that the good of the nation requires that those rules be changed.
“I vote to make these changes not as a loyal Democrat but as a loyal American, who wants what’s best for his nation and for the American people.”