Israel has just had it’s fourth election in two years, and it makes quite clear that Israel suffers from the something quite akin to what the United States was afflicted with very recently: its most powerful person
- is willing to do serious damage to his nation’s democratic institutions in order to hold onto power; and
- has, as one of his main motivations for wanting to maintain himself in power, the desire to keep himself out of jail.
The main question in Israeli politics, at this moment in the nation’s history and in the wake of this recent election, is whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will continue to cripple Israeli democracy.
The balance of ideological power in the country evidently leans in Netanyahu’s direction: i.e. the predominant opinion among the Israeli electorate leans toward the conservative side, made up of a combination of the hawkish Israeli nationalists (who don’t orient toward any “two-state solution” with the Palestinians) and the Orthodox Jewish parties (that want the power of the state to further their version of Judaism).
The political right seems the strongest political force, and under normal circumstances would likely be able to form a workable Israeli government.
But they can’t, because Netanyahu has gradually divided the right between his loyal supporters and those former Netanyahu allies who want Netanyahu out-- largely because he’s been indicted for serious crimes of corruption, and because Netanyahu has been using his power to protect himself from accountability before the law.
(Just as with “the former guy” here in the U.S., Netanyahu has tried to cast doubt on the integrity of the legal system, and the honesty of the press that has been covering this ongoing investigation of Netanyahu’s wrong doing for the past more than four years. Although Netanyahu hasn’t gone so far as to incite an insurrection to stay in power and out of prison, he’s done plenty of damage to Israeli institutions already.)
Netanyahu’s party – the Likud – has so far stuck with their long-time leader. And that party has won more seats in the Israeli parliament (the Knesset) than any other party.
The question facing the Israeli political system now is whether the rest of the political system can find a way to get past this Netanyahu era. (It’s worth calling an “era” because he’s already the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israeli history.)
The parties that are explicitly or potentially anti-Netanyahu do have enough votes to form a governing coalition. But the question is, how far can that old saying -- “Politics makes strange bedfellows” – be stretched to bring all those parties together. For these include: the center-left parties, the right-wing parties led by leaders that split from Netanyahu, and Arab parties (who have never ever been part of a ruling coalition).
“Strange bedfellows” because, except for a desire to get Netanyahu out of power, a motley coalition comprised of those parties and leaders have almost nothing else in common. They could constitute a government, but one that would be hard-pressed to agree on what direction to take Israel. (And therefore, in a parliamentary system, would find it challenging to survive for long.)
If the anti-Netanyahu factions cannot come together, and if – as seems the case – Netanyahu cannot gain the support of the necessary 61 seats in the Knesset to form a real government, the nation will continue in its current stalemate.
That stalemate that would likely leave Netanyahu in charge of a care-taker government, and move the nation toward a fifth election in quick succession. And there’s no sign that yet another election would lead to any better resolution of the political crisis.
