I’ve read smart people who report that a great many people don’t really pay attention to politics until close to the election, like between Labor Day and Election Day. Does this introduce any significant uncertainty about how public opinion will get apportioned between the two presidential candidates?
Most assessments of the race I hear have the Harris-Trump race breaking down on pretty much well-established lines. People tell pollsters whom they lean toward, and the proportions don’t vary much.
But if it is true that a whole lot of Americans will be looking at the political picture over the next couple of months, are these people whose view of things is not firmly established?
In other words, do these people — though they haven’t paid attention — already have a point of view that’s going to determine how they vote?
Or are they not very attached to their not so well-informed sense of things, and are therefore open to being persuaded by a persuasive case?
Kamala’s campaign has the big advantage that the truth favors her side of the contest. Might that the truth about Trump and Kamala bring these ill-informed people over to the right side in proportions that change the shape of the electorate?
That would be a good thing. But if I had to bet, I’d guess that ignorance has not led to a greater openness to learning.
(I’ve encountered plenty of people who held the strongest opinions on things they knew nothing about, and my fear is that a great many of these people who are only starting to pay attention are impervious to evidence that challenges their preconceptions and loyalties.)
But perhaps, in the coming couple of months, we’ll hear stories of some of these people -- who are only now starting to pay attention — discovering what a stark and important contrast there is between these two candidates, and therefore being moved to choose what any sensible person of decent character and judgment would choose.